That certain something! Focusing on similarities reduces judgmental uncertainty
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts
Measuring demand uncertainty is a key activity in supply chain planning. Of various methods of estimating the standard deviation of demand, one that has been employed successfully in the recent literature uses dispersion among experts’ forecasts. However, there has been limited empirical validation of this methodology. In this paper we provide a general methodology for estimating the standard d...
متن کاملOn certain semigroups of transformations that preserve double direction equivalence
Let TX be the full transformation semigroups on the set X. For an equivalence E on X, let TE(X) = {α ∈ TX : ∀(x, y) ∈ E ⇔ (xα, yα) ∈ E}It is known that TE(X) is a subsemigroup of TX. In this paper, we discussthe Green's *-relations, certain *-ideal and certain Rees quotient semigroup for TE(X).
متن کاملI ’ ll cross that bridge if I get to it : Focusing on the Near ( Certain ) Future ∗
In many important economic decisions under uncertainty, the expected-utility maximizing choice is ex post optimal only if certain later states are reached. We investigate whether, outside of discounting, subjects are biased towards options faring well in early-period comparisons. We conduct neutral-context laboratory experiments to systematically investigate this bias and its interaction with a...
متن کاملSommers' proof that something exists
1. Something is possible. 2. Whatever is not a categorially possible thing is not a possible thing. 3. Suppose there were nothing (i.e., nothing exists). 4. By definition D-things are categorially impossible if and only if nothing is D and nothing is D. 5. For any D, nothing is D and nothing is D. (by 3) 6. For any D, D-things are categorially impossible, (by 4 and 5) 7. For any D, D-things are...
متن کاملAccommodating explicit user expressions of uncertainty in voice search or something like that
Voice search applications encourage users to “just say what you want” in order to obtain useful mobile content such as automated directory assistance (ADA). Unfortunately, when users only remember part of what they are looking for, they are forced to guess, even though what they know may be sufficient to retrieve the desired information. In this paper, we propose expanding the capabilities of v...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Cognition
سال: 2017
ISSN: 0010-0277
DOI: 10.1016/j.cognition.2017.05.010